Weekly Market Update (9 February 2024)

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Weekly Market Update (9 February 2024)
  1. Vacancy Rates (Source: Domain)

    The national vacancy rate reached a record low of 0.8% in January, signaling a rental crisis in most capital cities. However, rental growth is slowing, providing some hope for renters. There are signs that renters may transition to home ownership due to the tight rental market. Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, and Perth are at or near record low vacancy rates. The number of prospective tenants per rental listing is easing, indicating a potential shift in rental demand. The monthly vacancy rates for various cities are provided, with Sydney and Melbourne experiencing a decline in vacancy rates, while Perth remains steady.

 

  1. House Prices (Source: Domain)

    The December 2023 data from Domain shows that Australia’s housing market has fully recovered from the 2022 downturn, reaching a new record high in house and unit prices. Most capital cities experienced price growth, with Adelaide leading in median house price increase. Record high median prices were observed in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth. Domain forecasts further price peaks in 2024 due to a potential interest rate cut. Dr. Nicola Powell, Domain’s Chief of Research and Economics, highlighted factors driving the market, such as undersupply of new homes and a growing population. The recovery varied across cities, with Melbourne expected to complete its recovery in 2024, while Canberra experienced a decrease in median house prices. Looking ahead, high-interest rates will continue to impact mortgage affordability, but an interest rate cut and tax cuts may drive upward price pressures. The table provides a comparison of house prices from peak to trough and recovery status for various regions. Additionally, it includes the median prices of houses and units for capital cities. The text also summarizes the housing market performance for each capital city, highlighting trends in house and unit prices.

 

  1. Construction Cost Index (Source: CoreLogic)

    The CoreLogic Construction Cost Index (CCCI) indicates a return to a normal growth trend for construction costs, rather than a new surge. The quarterly growth rate for the CCCI was 0.8% in the last quarter of 2023, lower than the pre-COVID decade average. Despite some uncertainty, the outlook for construction costs in the coming year is influenced by factors such as dwelling approvals and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The annual growth rate for the 2023 calendar year was 2.9%.

 

  1. Home Value Index (Source: CoreLogic)

    The housing market in Australia continued to rise in January 2024, with the national Home Value Index increasing by 0.4%. While some capitals saw a slight decline in housing values, others experienced significant growth, with Perth standing out for its rapid rate of capital gains. House values increased at a faster rate than unit values, and regional markets showed stronger value growth compared to the capital cities. Despite worsening affordability, the volume of home sales remained slightly above average, driven by high migration and tight rental markets.

 

  1. CoreLogic Auction Results (Week ending 4 Feb 2024)
    (Total Auction / Clearance Rate)

    – Sydney: 583 / 70.6%

    – Melbourne: 625 / 67.2%

    – Brisbane: 202 / 67.2%

    – Perth: 9 / 55.6%

    – Canberra: 129 / 58.6%

    – Adelaide: 162 / 74.1%

    – Tasmania: 2 / 50%

    – Combined Capitals: 1,712 / 68.3%

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