Weekly Market Update (7 February 2025)

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Weekly Market Update (7 February 2025)
  1. Home value index (Source: CoreLogic)
    The Australian housing market saw steady national home values in January, with a 0.03% decrease, primarily due to declines in capital city values. Regional areas reached new record highs with a 0.4% increase. Some capitals, including Melbourne, ACT, and Sydney, recorded annual declines, while others, like Brisbane and Perth, showed growth but with decreasing momentum. The national Home Value Index is down 0.3% from record highs, and sales volume has also passed its peak. The likelihood of a significant housing growth cycle in the coming year is low.

 

  1. NAB (Source: Smart Property Investment)
    NAB has become the first among the “big four” Australian banks to reduce fixed-rate mortgages, cutting them across all loan terms. The bank’s lowest fixed rate now stands at 5.84% for a three-year term. Other banks are expected to follow suit due to easing wholesale funding costs and a potential RBA rate cut. However, fixed rates still have room to fall before becoming popular again. The lowest fixed rates in the market are currently below 5%. The RBA is poised to make its next rate decision in February, and it’s uncertain whether there will be a barrage of cash rate cuts or not. The discrepancy among the big four banks’ forecasts for rate cuts could influence the fixed versus variable equation.

 

  1. National home prices (Source: Dr. Andrew Wilson)
    The national median house and unit prices both decreased over the January quarter due to seasonal effects and affordability pressures. However, house prices are expected to rise again in 2025, with Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide expected to outperform. The housing market has softened at the start of 2025 but long-term fundamentals remain strong, with migration, low unemployment, and potential rate cuts expected to support a moderate price rebound later in the year. National home prices have commenced 2025 lower, with most capitals reporting monthly falls for houses, but significant annual price growth in some cities, particularly Perth and Brisbane. Unit prices also saw monthly declines but remain higher than the January quarter 2024 results, with Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide recording the highest annual price growth.

 

  1. Rental growth (Source: Smart Property Investment)
    The REA Group Rental Report for December 2024 shows the national median rent grew by 6.9%, the slowest annual increase since late 2021, reaching $620 per week. Capital city markets, particularly Sydney and Melbourne, saw no growth, while Perth and Adelaide recorded the highest weekly rental increases at 8.3% and 7.4%, respectively. The total number of rentals advertised nationwide increased by 9.5% year on year, giving renters greater choice. Despite slower rental growth, investors saw their gross rental yield remain steady at 4.4% in December. The rental market is expected to continue tightening in 2025, with rents predicted to rise at a more moderate pace.

 

  1. QLD’s property market (Source: InfoTrack)
    The Property Market Update for Q4 2024 by InfoTrack identified three new suburbs – Hamilton, Chermside, and Yarrabilba – as top locations for property sales in Queensland. Pimpama and Upper Coomera remained popular due to their proximity to the Brisbane CBD and beaches. The Moreton Bay region, specifically Caboolture and Morayfield, is expected to attract more buyers. Southport saw the biggest change, moving from seventh to first place for unit sales. Hamilton and Chermside, known for their lifestyle and transport options, entered the top 10 for residential unit sales.

 

  1. Energy efficiency (Source: CoreLogic)
    CoreLogic reveals that newer homes built after 2010 are twice as energy efficient as older homes, with the ACT having the highest median energy efficiency rating at 6.1 stars. The National Construction Code (NCC) has played a significant role in driving energy efficiency improvements. Australia’s residential buildings account for 24% of overall electricity use and over 10% of total carbon emissions. The importance of measuring and improving energy efficiency in existing housing is emphasized, as most of Australia’s housing stock was built prior to recent minimum standards.

 

  1. QLD’s rental market (Source: REIQ)
    The Queensland rental market continues to experience severe pressure with vacancy rates remaining at a record low of one percent during the December quarter of 2024. Forty-eight out of fifty regions reported tight rental conditions, with some areas having no available properties. The state is failing to meet its housing construction targets, with only 8,177 dwellings completed in the September quarter, far below the annual requirement of 49,000 new homes.

 

  1. Residential land (Source: CoreLogic)
    The median price of residential land in Australia reached a new record high of $366,510 in the September quarter 2024, growing at a rate that outpaced both inflation and construction costs. Land prices rose by 7.6% over the past year, with capital cities experiencing a 9.2% increase to $408,160 and regional areas seeing a more modest 2% growth to $281,910. CoreLogic Economist Maurice Tapang noted that land prices have risen three times faster than the consumer price index and five times faster than the cost of home building materials. Perth and Brisbane recorded the strongest growth, with land prices surging 38.6% and 21.2% respectively. However, affordability remains a challenge, with new dwelling approvals 17.8% below the decade average and 29% below the annual target needed to meet government housing goals. Inadequate land supply for residential development could derail the government’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years. Some builders are offering discounts to cope with margin pressures, but new dwelling purchase prices declined by 0.6% in November.

 

  1. Queensland (Source: Hotspotting)
    Queensland is identified as the leading state for stable property investment locations, with 29 areas in Brisbane and regional Queensland making up Australia’s top 50 most consistent markets. Consistent markets, such as Buderim on the Sunshine Coast with an average annual growth of 13.3% over five years, are delivering significant long-term capital growth. The shift in focus from Western Australia to Queensland is attributed to internal migration trends, with regional areas dominating the top 50 most consistent suburbs nationally.

 

  1. National home prices (Source: Proptrack)
    National home prices experienced a 0.08% decrease in January but remained 3.82% higher year-on-year. Capital cities led the decline, with a 0.16% drop, while regional areas saw a 0.12% rise. Key cities like Hobart, Melbourne, and Sydney recorded significant price falls. However, Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane remained the strongest performing capitals over the past year, despite a slowing pace of growth. Affordability and increased choice in the market have contributed to the recent downturn, but interest rate cuts are expected to boost borrowing capacities and renewed demand.

 

  1. National property listings (Source: SQM Research)
    Total nationwide residential property listings increased by 4.5% in January 2025, with a 10.3% rise compared to January 2024. New residential property listings increased by 2.9% nationally in January 2025, representing an 18.1% rise compared to January 2024. Asking prices for houses increased by 0.8% nationally, while unit prices declined by 0.4%, resulting in a combined increase of 0.7%.

 

  1. Aging population (Source: Michael Yardney)
    The “Age Bomb” refers to the demographic shift in Australia due to an aging population, with Australians living longer and declining birth rates leading to increased pressure on social and economic systems. By 2038, the number of Australians aged 85 and over is expected to double, resulting in significant challenges and opportunities in areas such as housing, healthcare, workforce dynamics, and retirement planning. Strategies for adapting to this demographic shift include encouraging older workers to remain in the workforce, developing age-friendly communities, and increasing funding for aged care.

 

  1. Car parking changes (Source: Property Buzz)
    The Property Council of Australia has praised Brisbane City Council’s decision to reduce car parking requirements for inner-city apartment buildings as part of their Inner-City Affordability Initiative. This change, estimated to save up to $100,000 per apartment, is expected to make apartment projects more feasible and affordable. However, the Property Council also emphasized the need for broader efforts from all levels of government to address the housing crisis in Queensland. Additionally, the council called for a review of Queensland’s foreign tax settings to attract more investment for housing and infrastructure projects.

 

  1. Brisbane’s property market (Source: Melinda Jennison)
    Brisbane’s property market continues to experience growth, with affordable suburbs and units driving the trend. Investors are particularly interested in units due to their higher rental yields and potential bargains. Brisbane’s dwelling values rose by 0.3% monthly and 1.2% quarterly, with a 10.4% annual increase. The median house price is $977,343, and the median unit value is $685,291. Vacancy rates remain low at 1.2%, and rental growth has been steady for houses and apartments. The market is expected to continue growing, albeit at a more moderate pace, due to solid market fundamentals and continued migration into Brisbane.

 

  1. Apartment buyers (Source: Greg Devine)
    In 2025, apartment buyers in Australia are prioritizing flexible floorplans, quality outdoor spaces, and community connections. With an increase in new apartment developments and a more informed buyer demographic, developers are focusing on providing adaptable living spaces, access to outdoor areas, and communal amenities to attract buyers. Additionally, affordable financing options and work from home spaces are also important considerations. The Australian apartment market is evolving, with a shift towards more diverse buyer profiles and heightened expectations for lifestyle and convenience.

 

  1. 16. CoreLogic Auction Results (Week ending 2 February 2025)
    (Total Auction / Clearance Rate)

    – Sydney: 453 / 59.6%
    – Melbourne: 483 / 58.6%
    – Brisbane: 162 / 59%
    – Perth: 11 / 27.3%
    – Canberra: 131 / 57.7%
    – Adelaide: 150 / 65.3%
    – Tasmania: NA / 0%
    – Combined Capitals: 1,390 / 59.4%

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