Weekly Market Update (6 December 2024)

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Weekly Market Update (6 December 2024)
  1. Build to Rent bill (Source: Sebastian Holloman)
    The Build to Rent bill, which aims to deliver 80,000 rental homes over the next decade, passed through Parliament on November 29, 2024. The legislation includes extended tenancies, strengthened tenant protections, and stricter affordable housing requirements. It also offers tax incentives for build-to-rent (BTR) investment and introduces stricter penalties for improperly claimed tax concessions. The bill includes revisions that increase the minimum tenancy to five years, prohibit no-fault evictions, and define “affordable tenancies” based on income and market value. Industry leaders welcome the passage of the bill, which they believe can deliver 80,000 new rental homes over the next decade.

 

  1. Queen’s Wharf Residences (Source: Queen’s Wharf Brisbane)
    Queen’s Wharf Prepares to Welcome First Residents in Early 2025 as CBD Experiences Critical Shortage. The first residents are set to move into Queen’s Wharf Residences, Brisbane’s fastest-selling residential development, in early 2025. The 64-storey tower, with luxury amenities and direct access to Brisbane’s dining and entertainment precinct, marks a significant step forward in transforming Brisbane’s skyline. CBD apartment sales are at an all-time low, making Queen’s Wharf Residences an attractive option for buyers.

 

  1. Home prices over November (Source: Dr. Andrew Wilson)
    The latest housing market statistics show that national capital city median house prices rose by 0.6% over the November quarter, reaching $1,163,921. Home prices have increased in 21 of the past 22 months, with a yearly increase of 7.1% and a two-year increase of 15.1%. Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide had the highest annual growth, up by 26.3%, 24.7%, and 20.2%, respectively. Sydney and Melbourne reported quarterly growth of 0.7% and 0.1%, respectively, but Melbourne’s annual growth was negative at -1.2%. National unit prices also increased by 0.2% to $663,202, with Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide recording the highest annual growth of 26.3%, 24.7%, and 20.2%, respectively. Sydney and Melbourne reported quarterly declines of 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively, but Melbourne’s annual growth was negative at -6.0%. The housing market is expected to remain strong in Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide, while Sydney will maintain steady growth, and Melbourne will struggle to regain momentum. Economic stability and easing interest rate pressures will continue to support the market, with a rate cut unlikely until 2026.

 

  1. Cash rate forecasts (Source: Misha Ketchell)
    The Big Four Australian banks, ANZ, Westpac, and NAB, have revised their cash rate forecasts, predicting the first rate cut to occur in May 2025 instead of February, with only two rate cuts expected instead of the previously anticipated five. This means the average mortgage rate may only drop slightly, remaining just below 6%, which could be insufficient relief for borrowers already struggling with higher repayment costs. The lowest available variable rates could still be in the mid-5% range. Borrowers are advised to refinance proactively, compare and negotiate, and budget for resilience in the face of prolonged higher repayments.

 

  1. Help to Buy housing scheme (Source: Kaitlin Ezzy)
    The Australian Senate has passed the Help to Buy housing scheme, a multibillion-dollar plan designed to assist low to moderate-income earners in purchasing homes. The scheme, which complements the existing Home Guarantee Scheme, targets people on lower incomes by setting lower eligibility limits and offering more substantial assistance. The government takes a 30-40% equity share in the acquired homes, reducing both the down payment and mortgage loan size. The estimated cost for a four-year program involving 40,000 homes is $5.5 billion, with the government expecting to recoup the funds when homes are sold, along with a proportionate share of any capital gains. The scheme aims to expand home ownership and contribute to new housing supply. However, there is a lack of coherence in the government’s housing initiatives, with the National Housing and Homelessness Plan, which could provide a unifying strategy, remaining under wraps.

 

  1. Home value index (Source: CoreLogic)
    The national home value index rose by only 0.1% in November, marking the weakest growth since January 2023. Melbourne and Sydney, which have been major contributors to the growth cycle, are experiencing declines, with Melbourne recording a -0.4% fall and Sydney a -0.2% fall. Four of the eight capitals, including Melbourne, Sydney, Darwin, and Canberra, have recorded a fall in values. The mid-sized capitals and most regional markets continue to provide some support for growth, but momentum is leaving these markets as well. Weaker housing conditions have led to an increase in available supply and a decrease in purchasing activity, resulting in deteriorating selling conditions.

 

  1. Total property listings (Source: SQM Research)
    The report from SQM Research highlights a 7.6% increase in total property listings, driven by a rise in old listings and a notable decline in new listings. Distressed sales activity rose by 1.7%, with varying trends across different regions. Asking prices for houses and units showed mixed results, with a 0.8% decline in capital city prices. The managing director noted a slower housing market, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, with lower vendor confidence. Looking ahead, new listings are expected to decrease leading up to Christmas, with the market likely to pick up again in February.

 

  1. Home approvals (Source: PropTrack)
    In October 2024, Australia recorded the highest number of new home approvals since December 2022, with a total of 15,498 approvals. The increase was mainly due to a surge in apartment approvals in New South Wales and Victoria, which rose by nearly 25%. Meanwhile, private sector house approvals decreased by 5.2%. Experts predict a rise in home building activity next year due to low unemployment, unchanged interest rates, and stable growth in material prices. However, the current rate of new home approvals would result in a shortfall of 353,000 homes from the National Housing Accord target by mid-2025.

 

  1. Australian dwelling prices (Source: Property Buzz)
    Australian house prices reached a new record median of $800,000 in November, with annual growth of 5.53%. Major cities saw 5.55% annual growth, while regional areas had 5.48% growth. Brisbane had the second most expensive median price at $868,000. Price growth slowed due to increased listings and strong demand. Regional areas outperformed capitals in November, with Perth having the strongest annual growth at 18.74%. Sydney and Melbourne saw minimal growth, while Melbourne’s median price fell to $792,000. Increased stock for sale and strong demand have tempered price growth.

 

  1. Building approvals (Source: Property Buzz)
    Building approvals in Australia reached a two-year high in October, with over 14,000 new homes approved for construction. The increase was primarily driven by a surge in apartment and townhouse approvals, which rose by 24.8% to 5,859 units. NSW led the increase with a 34.8% rise in total approvals, while Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia recorded declines. Industry experts welcomed the increase but called for consistency and government collaboration to address housing undersupply and rising rents. At the current approval rate, Australia is projected to fall short of the National Housing Accord’s target by over 350,000 homes by 2029.

 

  1. Housing crisis (Source: Property Buzz)
    The housing crisis in Australia has worsened, according to a survey by Master Builders Australia. Seven in ten Australians believe this, with 90% of respondents reporting difficulty affording housing. Over a third of Australians have had to sacrifice essentials like food, medicine, or education expenses to cover housing costs. The survey also revealed that 85% of respondents acknowledged a housing shortage and placed responsibility for solving the crisis on the federal government. The survey was conducted by Insightly in November 2024.

 

  1. CoreLogic Auction Results (Week ending 1 December 2024)
    (Total Auction / Clearance Rate)

    – Sydney: 1,031 / 58.2%
    – Melbourne: 1,390 / 61.7%
    – Brisbane: 175 / 48.6%
    – Perth: 16 / 56.3%
    – Canberra: 99 / 48.5%
    – Adelaide: 169 / 60.4%
    – Tasmania: 1 / 100%
    – Combined Capitals: 2,881 / 59.1%

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