- Investor Lending & Market Momentum (Source: Property Update)
Investor lending is driving Australian home loan growth, forecast at 13% in 2026, but momentum may slow due to rising interest rates and policy uncertainty around Capital Gains Tax changes and negative gearing caps. NSW remains the largest investor market with expected 16% growth in investor loans, while accounting for 31% of all new investor loans nationally. Victoria is rapidly closing the gap on NSW with 21% investor lending growth over the past year and is forecast to nearly match NSW’s total loan volumes in 2026. Queensland is losing investor momentum with slower 6% expected growth as investors shift to more affordable markets offering better rental yields. South Australia shows stable but subdued lending volumes, though rising loan sizes (up 13% year-on-year) indicate growth is driven more by property value increases than transaction volume increases. Western Australia is entering a slowdown after a five-year boom, forecast to be the only state with declining home lending in 2026 following months of easing momentum. Tasmania is experiencing sharp investor growth of 30% over the past year from a low base, with investor lending projected to surpass the ACT and Northern Territory in 2026.
- Queensland Auction Market Update (Source: Smart Property Investment)
Queensland auction clearance rates fell to 44% in the week ending March 29, reflecting buyer caution due to rising interest rates, global uncertainty, and increasing living costs. A widening gap exists between buyer and seller expectations, with multiple registered bidders present but bids often failing to meet sellers’ asking prices, though properties can still sell via private treaty after passing in at auction. Queensland faces persistent structural undersupply since the COVID-19 pandemic, with listing volumes remaining near historic lows, while investors account for over 40% of financial commitments and first home buyer incentives have driven strong demand in properties under $1 million. Unit values in Brisbane are rising faster than house values at 4-5% quarterly growth, significantly outpacing Sydney and Melbourne, and tight supply is expected to continue supporting prices despite cautious buyer sentiment. - Capital City Price Growth (Source: Property Update)
Capital city home prices rose 0.9% in the March quarter to a median of $1,296,402, with annual growth of 11.0% over 13 consecutive months despite rising interest rates. All capital cities reported house price increases, with Darwin leading at 4.4% monthly growth, while Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide showed the strongest annual growth (15.3%-24.8%). National unit prices similarly increased 0.9% to $725,206 in the March quarter and 8.7% annually, with Perth, Brisbane, Darwin, and Adelaide recording the highest annual growth (14.7%-29.8%). Housing market resilience is supported by strong job growth, housing demand exceeding limited supply, high migration levels, and rising rents, though uncertainty over interest rates and economic outlook may dampen confidence. While Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, and Darwin are expected to lead growth in 2026, results are unlikely to match 2025’s extraordinary performance.
- Resale Profitability Record High (Source: Cotality)
Australian housing resale profitability reached a 20-year high in December quarter, with 95.9% of properties selling at a gain and a record median profit of $365,000. Properties held longer generate profits while shorter ownership periods result in losses; profitable resales had a median hold period of 9.2 years versus 4 years for loss-making properties. Houses significantly outperform units with 98.1% selling at a profit compared to 91.2% for units, with losses concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne’s inner-city apartment markets. Brisbane leads capital cities in profitability at 99.9% with median gains of $500,000, followed by Adelaide and Perth, while Melbourne has the lowest profitability at 91.5%. Future resale profitability faces headwinds in 2026 due to rising interest rates, increased listings, and slowing population growth. Regional Migration Trends (Source: Property Buzz)
Australians are increasingly migrating from capital cities to regional areas, with Sydney residents leading this exodus due to high property costs. The Sunshine Coast and Geelong remain top destinations, but migrants are now venturing further for affordability, with Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia experiencing significant growth. Regional home prices are rising faster than capital cities, with 10.5% annual growth compared to 8.6% in capitals. While affordability is the primary driver, job opportunities are also contributing to sustained migration trends across regional Australia.Interest Rate Outlook (Source: Property Update)
Westpac forecasts the RBA will deliver three additional rate hikes in 2026, potentially raising the cash rate to 4.85%. For a $600,000 mortgage, five total hikes would increase monthly repayments by approximately $457. Rising fuel costs may force continued rate hikes despite government interventions, increasing financial pressure on borrowers. Borrowers are advised to consider refinancing or negotiating better rates as competition among lenders remains strong.- Market Slowdown in Major Cities (Source: Smart Property Investment)
Sydney and Melbourne property markets are cooling with declining values in March, driven by rising interest rates and affordability constraints. Auction clearance rates have fallen below 60%, shifting the balance toward buyers. A widening gap exists between price tiers, with lower-priced properties gaining value while upper-tier properties decline. Serviceability pressures are limiting demand, particularly at higher price points, with households spending a significant portion of income on repayments.
- National Price Trends & Investor Activity (Source: API Magazine & Property Update)
National home prices reached a record median value of $908,000, with strong annual growth supported by tight supply and population growth. Demand is shifting toward more affordable units, with unit price growth outpacing houses. Investor activity remains strong, with new investor loans surging 64% since 2023 and nearly half targeting properties under $700,000. Rising interest rates and policy uncertainty may moderate activity, but strong rental yields and tight vacancy rates continue to support demand. Additionally, 23% of Australians are considering early inheritance to cope with rising housing and living costs, highlighting ongoing affordability pressures. - CoreLogic Auction Results (Week ending 3 Apr 2026)
(Total Auction / Clearance Rate)– Sydney: 389/ 53.5%
– Melbourne: 152/ 58.3%
– Brisbane: 66/ 55.7%
– Perth: 3/ 66.7%
– Canberra: 31/61.3%
– Adelaide: 53 / 57.7%
– Tasmania: NA / NA
– Combined Capitals: 694 / 55.5%
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