Weekly Market Update (22 March 2024)

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Weekly Market Update (22 March 2024)
  1. Cash rate (Source: RBA & SPI)

    The Reserve Bank Board has decided to keep the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent. Although inflation is moderating, it remains high, driven by excess demand and strong domestic cost pressures. The labor market is gradually easing, but wages growth is expected to moderate. The outlook is uncertain, with weak household consumption growth and high unit labor costs. The central forecast is for inflation to return to the target range in 2025. The priority is to return inflation to target, but the path of interest rates to achieve this remains uncertain.

    Economists believe the Australian economy is facing a policy-induced slowdown, with persistent inflation and elevated cost pressures. The decision to hold rates is seen as a move to avoid a ‘hard landing,’ and it is anticipated that rates are unlikely to decrease until well into 2025. Despite this, the decision is expected to boost market confidence and stabilize conditions. Strong auction clearance rates and increased activity are evidence of market confidence, with potential for further positive impact on affordability. The longer the RBA holds rates steady, the more confident people will be about their household budgets and repayments, with expectations of a boost in confidence and sentiments from both buyers and sellers in the future.

 

  1. Listings Report (Source: PropTrack)

    The Australian property market saw a strong start in 2024, with the busiest January and February since 2012 in the capital cities. There was a 16.6% increase in new listings nationally in February, driven by strong demand, low unemployment, and stable interest rate outlook. While regional areas were quieter, they still saw a 7.8% increase in new listings. Sydney and Melbourne had particularly busy months, with significant increases in new listings. However, smaller capitals like Brisbane and Adelaide had slower activity. Perth continues to have challenging conditions for buyers, with fewer properties listed for sale. Regional areas in NSW and Victoria have seen solid increases in new listings, continuing the trend since the end of 2021.

 

  1. Australia’s economic outlook for 2024 (Source: Newsdesk)

    The Oxford Economics Australia’s bi-annual economic outlook conference predicts that Australia will avoid a technical recession in 2024 due to brisk population growth. However, inflation is expected to persist across all sectors, reflecting global trends. The CEO of Oxford Economics mentioned that core inflation may be a challenge to achieve, particularly in the US and UK. Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to reach their peak impact, and population growth is predicted to keep Australia out of recession. Rate cuts are not expected until the fourth quarter of 2024, and cost pressures on the services side of the economy are anticipated to remain high. Australia’s emissions are decreasing, but not enough to meet the 2030 targets due to delays in renewable energy rollout. In the real estate sector, residential property is expected to see more varied performance, while the construction sector is facing a challenging period with a decrease in total construction work for the first time since 2020.

 

  1. CoreLogic Auction Results (Week ending 17 Mar 2024
    (Total Auction / Clearance Rate)

    – Sydney: 873 / 66.5%

    – Melbourne: 1,483 / 66.4%

    – Brisbane: 182 / 63%

    – Perth: 19 / 63.2%

    – Canberra: 116 / 58.6%

    – Adelaide: 158 / 82.2%

    – Tasmania: 3 / 50%

    – Combined Capitals: 2,834 / 66.7%

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If you’re interested in staying updated on the Australian housing market, feel free to reach out to us. You can also follow our Facebook page and Instagram for regular updates on new listings, market trends, statistics, and insightful information.

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