Weekly Market Update (18 September 2026)

1. Housing Resale Profits Retreat as the Downturn Begins to Bite (Source: Property Update)
   Australia’s housing downturn is beginning to flow through to resale outcomes, with the share of profitable property resales falling to 95.4% in the June quarter from a 21-year high of 96.1% in March. The median profit also eased from $378,000 to $371,000, while the median loss increased to $45,000. Houses continued to outperform units, with 97.8% of house resales making a profit compared with 90.5% of units, and Sydney and Melbourne accounting for most unit resale losses. Brisbane remained the most profitable capital city, with 99.8% of resales profitable and a median gain of $525,000. The report also highlights that longer holding periods continue to provide a buffer against market downturns, while recent buyers are more exposed to falling values.

2. Rental Pool Shrinks as New Investors Fail to Replace Homes Being Sold (Source: Australian Property Update)
   Australia’s rental supply contracted in the seven weeks following the May Federal Budget, with only 61 new rental properties entering the market for every 100 rental homes sold, according to property research group FoundIt. Around 10,100 rental properties were sold during the period, while only 6,140 homes were purchased by investors and subsequently advertised for rent, resulting in an estimated net loss of about 570 rental properties per week. The issue appears to be driven less by a surge in landlord selling and more by the sharp decline in new investors entering the market. At the same time, population growth continues to create demand for an estimated 5,500–7,000 additional rental homes each month. With vacancy rates still historically low, the shrinking rental pool could increase competition among tenants and place further upward pressure on rents.

3. Brisbane Housing Market Records Third Consecutive Monthly Decline (Source: Property Update)
   Brisbane recorded another decline in August, with property values falling 1% for the month and 2.7% over the winter period. The downturn has become increasingly widespread, with 91% of Brisbane suburbs recording value declines. Advertised housing supply has also risen sharply, now 51% higher than a year earlier, reversing the severe undersupply seen at the beginning of the year. An important shift is occurring at the affordable end of the market: lower-quartile values fell 0.9% in August compared with a 0.8% decline in the upper quartile, suggesting that affordability pressures are now affecting cheaper properties as well. Despite the correction, Brisbane values remain 64% above their level five years ago, leaving many existing owners with substantial equity buffers.

4. Budget Housing Changes Could Reduce New Home Construction by 10,700 Dwellings (Source: Australian Property Update)
   Updated modelling commissioned by four major property and construction industry groups estimates that the Australian Government’s combined housing policy changes could result in around 10,700 fewer dwelling starts between 2026–27 and 2029–30. The modelling incorporates changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax as well as restrictions on self-managed super funds borrowing to purchase residential investment property. It estimates that the measures could result in rents being around $10 per week higher by 2029–30, approximately $1.05 billion less cumulative GDP and the equivalent of around 4,740 full-time construction jobs lost over four years. These figures are industry-commissioned estimates, and the Government has presented different modelling, arguing that its broader housing package could increase supply and have a smaller effect on rents.

5. Affordability Is Changing What Australians Buy, Not Just Where They Live (Source: Property Update)
   Housing affordability pressures are increasingly changing the type of property buyers consider, rather than simply pushing them further away from city centres. Research from Domain shows detached houses remain the dwelling type furthest outside many buyers’ budgets, with significant gaps between buyer search prices and actual listing prices. Townhouses are emerging as a middle ground, offering more space than apartments without the price of a detached house, while units are generally more closely aligned with buyer budgets across many capital-city markets. In Brisbane, for example, inner-city house buyers were searching around $1.3 million compared with an average listing price of $1.65 million, while inner-city unit search and listing prices were both around $800,000. The shift suggests that well-located, quality medium-density housing could become increasingly relevant as buyers adapt to affordability constraints.

6. AI-Enhanced Property Ads Are Frustrating Buyers When Reality Doesn’t Match the Listing (Source: Australian Financial Review)
   The article highlights growing frustration among property buyers and agents over the use of AI-enhanced images in property advertising. Virtual furniture, digitally altered rooms and other AI modifications can make properties appear significantly different from what buyers encounter during inspections, creating a gap between online expectations and the physical property. One Melbourne buyer’s agent described AI-staged properties as disappointing when buyers arrive and discover that the actual rooms do not match the images they saw online. The broader issue is transparency: AI can be useful for helping buyers visualise how a property could look, but excessive or undisclosed alterations can reduce the usefulness of listings and potentially undermine buyer confidence. The trend highlights the growing importance of clearly distinguishing between actual property photography and digitally enhanced or virtually staged imagery.

7. Falling House Prices Aren’t Translating Into Better Affordability as Rates Rise (Source: Property Update)
   Housing affordability has barely improved despite softer property prices because higher mortgage rates are offsetting the benefit of lower purchase prices. During the June quarter, Australia’s weighted median house price fell 1.2% to $1.136 million and the average owner-occupier loan declined 0.6% to $730,719, but the proportion of median family income required to service an average home loan increased to 50.9%. Average monthly mortgage repayments reached $6,018, up 12.4% over the year. Affordability also varies considerably between states, with NSW remaining particularly expensive while the ACT is comparatively more affordable. First-home buyer activity has continued, with their loan commitments increasing 11% over the June quarter, but the figures reinforce that lower property prices alone may not significantly improve affordability while borrowing costs remain elevated.

8. Queensland Economy Leads the Nation Despite a Cooling Housing Market (Source: realestate.com.au)
   Queensland has been ranked as Australia’s strongest state economy in CommBank’s September 2026 State of the States report, supported by strong investment, wage growth and relatively low unemployment. Dwelling investment in Queensland increased 16.8% year-on-year, while wage growth reached 3.4% and unemployment was 4.1%. However, the state’s economic strength is occurring alongside significant housing affordability pressures. Brisbane is now Australia’s second-most expensive capital city for housing, with a median house value of around $1.19 million and median unit price of $838,000. Mortgage repayments on a median-priced Queensland home are approaching 40% of average household income, while net interstate migration has declined for nine consecutive quarters. This suggests Queensland’s economic momentum remains strong, but rising housing costs are increasingly affecting household spending and migration patterns.
   
   
9. CoreLogic Auction Results (Week ending 13 September 2026)

        (Total Auction / Clearance Rate)
       – Sydney: 548/ 52.8%
       – Melbourne: 710/ 57.3%
       – Brisbane: 169/38.5%
       – Perth: 21/38.1%
       – Canberra: 58/43.1%
       – Adelaide: 79/ 49.4%
       – Tasmania: NA/ NA
     Combined Capitals: 1585/52.6%